Overseas investors are increasingly purchasing longer-duration Indian government bonds in anticipation of their inclusion in JPMorgan’s emerging market debt index, as they expect these securities to attract significant passive flows.
According to clearing house data, foreign investors have sold a net of 117 billion rupees ($1.41 billion) of government bonds in the last 10 weeks, but there have been inflows into notes with maturities of 10 years and more.
Leading the inflows are India’s former benchmark 7.18 percent 2033 bond, followed by the 7.30 percent 2053 paper.
“The bonds with maturities of 9 years and above represent 50 percent of India’s future weight in the index and are therefore receiving special attention from investors,” said Clement Niel, a portfolio manager for emerging markets local debt at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “We expect more flows into these bonds as investors increase their passive exposure to India.”
The 2033 bond, with 12 percent foreign ownership, is the most widely held among bonds accessible to overseas investors without restrictions. Meanwhile, foreigners own 3.6 percent of the 2053 bond.
In addition to direct purchases, foreign investors have also utilized derivative proxies to gain exposure to Indian bonds.
Market estimates suggest that inclusion in the JPMorgan emerging market debt index on June 28 could bring in around $25 billion of passive inflows, while active fund managers have already begun purchasing.
Until March, much of the overseas buying was focused on shorter-duration bonds, but fund managers are now adjusting their strategy.
BNP Paribas Asset Management’s Niel pointed out that index inclusion and a slowdown in global inflation will likely push long-term rates lower in the future.
Allianz Global Investors, which is increasing its exposure to India, is targeting bonds including the 30-year security that will be part of JPMorgan’s index.
“The longer end of the bond curve is typically more influenced by the fiscal outlook,” said Giulia Pellegrini, senior portfolio manager for EM fixed income at AllianzGI. “In India, the fiscal outlook is positive, so we are comfortable having exposure to the longer end.”
The Indian government aims to reduce its fiscal deficit to 4.5 percent by March 2026, with a recent substantial dividend from the central bank helping to mitigate risks to government finances.